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DECEMBER 2,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

A FERGUSON IN NEW YORK? – The race industry fervently hopes so.  There is a Ferguson-like case before a grand jury in New York City.  The case involves an African-American man who died while struggling with a police officer who allegedly had him in an illegal choke hold:  From CBS:  "NEW YORK (CBSNewYork) — A grand jury decision is expected to come soon, in the case of the apparent police chokehold that killed Eric Garner on Staten Island this past summer.  Garner, a father of six, died in July after being placed in an apparent chokehold by Officer Daniel Pantaleo. Garner was being arrested for allegedly selling loose, untaxed cigarettes.  The grand jury began hearing evidence in the case Sept. 29.
As CBS2’s Tony Aiello reported, a small, but spirited protest about the Garner case was held outside the Manhattan U.S. Attorney’s Office on Tuesday.  'I hope that Officer (Daniel) Pantaleo is indicted,' said Steve Quester of the group Stand up for Racial Justice.  Quester said he would like to see the officer who was seen on video placing Garner in the chokehold charged with murder."  The grand jury will decide.  Among the issues is whether Garner had the man in an illegal chokehold and whether that was the cause of death. You may be sure that anything short of a murder indictment will bring out the heavy-hitting agitators, regardless of the facts.

PAUL TO RUN AGAIN FOR SENATE – Republican Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky announced today that he would run for the Senate again in 2016.  Paul is also considered a presidential contender for that year, but has a problem:  Under Kentucky law he cannot run for president and Senate simultaneously.  The legislature in Kentucky is controlled by Democrats, and they're not going to ease Paul's way by changing that law.  At some point he'll have to decide.  My guess is that he'll give up the presidential run because support for him, thus far, has been limited.

OIL ACTION SLOWS – The United States is becoming so successful at finding new oil and marketing it, that prices are plunging.  Inevitably, that has resulted in a slowing of oil exploration as the industry may well become less profitable.  From Reuters:  "(Reuters) - Plunging oil prices sparked a drop of almost 40 percent in new well permits issued across the United States in November, in a sudden pause in the growth of the U.S. shale oil and gas boom that started around 2007.  Data provided exclusively to Reuters on Tuesday by industry data firm Drilling Info Inc showed 4,520 new well permits were approved last month, down from 7,227 in October.  The pullback was a 'very quick response' to U.S. crude prices, which settled on Tuesday at $66.88 CLc1, said Allen Gilmer, chief executive officer of Drilling Info."  We are becoming energy independent.  We'll be free of blackmail, and free to explore new types of clean energy at our own pace, and in the best way.  The left is crushed, depressed.  I believe that a portion of oil profits should go to providing psychiatric care and rest homes for leftists and shattered enviro-nuts.  It's only fair. 

December 2,  2014     Permalink

THIS DAY – AT 10:36 A.M. ET:   December 2nd is a special day.  It was on this day in 1942 that scientists at the University of Chicago achieved the world's first self-sustained nuclear chain reaction, a major step in the development of the atomic bomb.  As a U of C student, I passed the plaque commemorating the achievement, done under the leadership of Enrico Fermi, each day. 

What is important to recall is how quickly we developed a nuclear weapon during World War II, before the age of modern computers.  It is important because we are today engaged in a negotiation with Iran that centers on how quickly the Iranians could "break out" to an atomic bomb from their current level of development.  After the Chicago experiment succeeded it took us little more than two and a half years to complete development, using technology that was horse-and-buggy by today's standards.  The first nuclear device was exploded on July 16, 1945, in New Mexico.  An operational bomb was used against Hiroshima only three weeks later, and a second against Nagasaki a few days after that. 

The bombs ended World War II.  They were ghastly weapons, but they probably saved millions of lives.  And "breakout" today by Iran could occur very quickly, before we realized it was happening.  A thought to remember.

December 2, 2014       Permalink

NEW DEFENSE SECRETARY? – AT 9:35 A.M. ET:  CNN is reporting that Ashton Carter will be Obama's choice for secretary of defense: 

Washington (CNN) -- Ashton Carter, the former second-in-command at the Pentagon appears to be the top choice to replace outgoing Secretary Chuck Hagel.

Pentagon insider may lead war on ISIS The candidates for Secretary of Defense

Barring any last minute complications, Ash Carter will be President Barack Obama's choice as the new Secretary of Defense, several U.S. administration officials told CNN.

An administration official had said that Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson, a former General Counsel at the Pentagon, was also still on the list of possibilities, but on Tuesday morning, sources said Johnson was no longer being considered. The prospect of an additional confirmation hearing for Johnson's replacement if he were to move to the Pentagon as the Senate switches to Republican control would have been problematic for the White House.

Hagel announced his resignation last week, but has said he will stay on until his successor is confirmed by the Senate.

Carter, who served as Deputy Defense Secretary under both Leon Panetta and Hagel, would bring a wide range of experience to a department confronting multiple crises in the Middle East and preparing to enter a new phase in Afghanistan as the NATO combat mission ends.

Carter's ability to hit the ground running from his past experience at the Pentagon, in addition to the respect many senior military leaders have for him are seen as major benefits to winning confirmation should Obama nominate him. 

COMMENT:  I don't know much about him.  Even if he is the most capable candidate, we must ask whether Obama and the 107 dwarfs around Obama, will allow Carter to do his job, which is defending the United States.  Carter, if confirmed, will be Obama's fourth secretary of defense, an extraordinary number in six years.  Bob Gates, Leon Panetta, and Chuck Hagel were the first three, and both Gates and Panetta made clear their dissatisfaction with the White House.  Hagel will probably join in, especially as he's been fired. 

If Carter stands up to the White House he might build a record enviable enough to continue as secretary under the next president, Democrat or Republican.

December 2, 2014       Permalink

JEB MOVES CLOSER – AT 9:05 A.M. ET:  If he declares, Jeb Bush would be a major contender for the GOP presidential nomination immediately.  Even more major would be Mitt Romney, who is now leading Hillary Clinton in early polling matchups.  Jeb will decide soon.  From Fox: 

Speaking at the Wall Street Journal CEO Council Dinner Monday, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush said he is nearing a decision whether to run for president in 2016.

"I'm thinking about running for president and will make up my mind in short order," Bush said. "I do not know the exact timeline, (but) it will be the same decision making process I've always had."

Bush laid out his blueprint that could serve as his 2016 campaign platform.

Bush said his priorities include an "all-in" energy policy that expands the use of the country's natural resources, a reduction in business regulations, a simpler tax code, an "economically driven" overhaul of the immigration system and a transformation of the nation's education system, the Wall Street Journal reported.

His education platform would better serve the needs of individual children and break up "government-run monopolies" of local school districts, he explained.

He also spoke of his support for higher academic standards and for testing to see if students are meeting them.

Bush also remarked on Congress's potential showdown over the federal budget. He urged Congress to make compromises to pass legislation and take the focus off trying to repeal the Affordable Care Act.

Bush says he disagrees with Obama's decision to protect nearly five million illegal immigrants from deportation, but said Republicans should take the lead on the issue.

Bush said he will make his decision in "short order" and will need to do "a lot of soul searching to make that determination."

"I don't know if I'd be a good candidate or bad," Bush said. "I know a Republican can win, whether it's me or somebody else."

COMMENT:  I'm sorry Bush didn't deal with foreign policy.  And his domestic statements seem vague.

I've always liked him.  He was a thoughtful, capable governor of Florida.  While the government of Louisiana collapsed during Katrina, Bush handled five hurricanes that hit the Florida coast during that same period, and handled them well, without panic. 

I wonder if he cuts a strong enough figure.  I wonder the same about Mitt Romney, but Mitt ran once, knows the ropes, and corrects mistakes.  Both are good men.

Bush is not a movement conservative, and there already is a backlash against him building in the Republican Party.  Conservatives will score some good points against him, and he'll have to handle them.  I hope, though, that in the end the party can unite around its candidate, and go on to a solid victory. 

December 2, 2014        Permalink

SHE SPEAKS – AT 8:50 A.M. ET:  Hillary Clinton has taken a stand.  The world stops.  It's perfectly clear that she's no longer "inevitable," and so special attention is being paid to anything she says or does that can gain or cost votes.  From the Daily Beast: 

At a speech to the League of Conservation Voters in midtown Manhattan Monday night, before hundreds of deep-pocketed donors, Hillary Clinton praised the environmental legacy of Teddy Roosevelt, touted the prospect of new green technologies, and had warm words for Barack Obama’s aggressive efforts to combat climate change.

Absent from the former Secretary of State’s speech? Any sense of where she stood on the controversial Keystone pipeline project, or what she would do differently as president to steer the nation towards a more sustainable future.

But that didn’t mean that Clinton wasn’t clear about where she came down on environmental matters—she praised both her husband’s record of cleaning up air and water standards, and the Obama administrations recent efforts to strike a climate deal with China and to toughen pollution standards.

“We continue to push forward. But that is just the beginning. Science of climate change is unforgiving, no matter what the deniers may say,” Clinton said, reading off of prepared remarks.

The former Secretary of State alluded to the need to wean the nation off of fossil fuels, but noted that, “the political challenges are also unforgiving. There is no getting around the fact that the kind of ambitious response required to effectively combat climate change is going to a be a tough sell at home and around the world at a time when so many countries around the world, including our own, are grappling with slow growth and stretch budgets.”

Clinton was vague about the kind of response needed to address climate change, coming down neither in favor of the traditional Democratic carbon tax or the Republican (pre-Obama, at least) cap and trade plan.

But...

Clinton did, however, come out in favor of natural gas drilling, known as hydrofracking, which has become a key cause for environmental activists, who say that the risks involved in natural gas drilling are not yet known.

“Yes, natural gas can play an important bridge role in the transition to a cleaner, greener economy,” Clinton said, adding that safeguards should be in place to minimize environmental risk.

But if Clinton waded into the natural gas debate, she entirely avoided the Keystone one.

COMMENT:  So she's in favor of fracking, at least to a degree, but she buys the whole "climate change" package, despite increasing doubts, even among climatologists.  As we reported, a new Purdue University survey shows that barely more than 50% of climatologists now believe that humans cause global warming. 

One of Clinton's problems is that the Democratic Party base is now dramatically out of favor with the rest of the country.  But the base controls the presidential nomination.  She has to appeal to enviro-nuts to get that nomination, then must appeal to a much broader constituency to get elected.  It may be mission impossible.

December 2,  2014     Permalink

DECEMBER 1,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:36 P.M. ET: 

EDITOR'S NOTE – One of the pleasures of writing and editing Urgent Agenda is getting to know the work of many of our remarkable readers.   One of those readers, and subscribers, is the distinguished military historian Will Stroock, author of many books and articles – non-fiction and fiction – that explore the world of the soldier.  Will is just out with his latest novel, "Israel Strikes:  War of the Red Sea," which can be found here, at Amazon.  Once again Will shows his mastery of the Mideast's leading militaries – how they fight, how they think, how they're led.  It's almost as if you're reading battle reports on the desks of the major players.  The action never stops, and the plot twists show that there's nothing as unpredictable, or human, as modern warfare.  And as the last few pages prove, there'll always be another surprise.  Will we be ready?  Give "Israel Strikes" a good look.  The author is a first-class researcher, which is why the book has the power of authority, as well as solid story telling.

THE FUTURE OF BRITAIN – From London's Daily Mail:  "For years Muhammad has been racing up the chart of the country’s most popular baby names – and now he has been joined by his sisters Nur and Maryam.  The two girls’ names have been among the most popular of 2014, according to website BabyCentre.   The data shows a surge in Arabic names in the UK this year, with Omar, Ali and Ibrahim all entering the boys’ top 100 for the first time."  This is called the future electorate.  Future, as within 25 years.  The same thing is happening in France.  It isn't bigotry to point out the impact this will eventually have on European and British politics, including foreign policy.

BARKLEY TELLS IT LIKE IT IS – From Fox:  "Sir Charles has opinions, and he isn’t afraid to voice them. NBA great Charles Barkley undoubtedly lost some fans and gained some more recently, when he said the grand jury got it right in declining to indict Ferguson, Mo., Police Officer Darren Wilson in the shooting death of Michael Brown and labeled looters 'scumbags.'  'The true story came out from the grand jury testimony,' the Hall of Fame forward told radio host Mike Missanelli last week on Philadelphia’s sports radio station The Fanatic.  Noting that several black witnesses corroborated Wilson’s version of events, saying Brown attacked him and went for his gun, Barkley accused the press of using dubious information to inflame passions."  And he is correct.  There've been periodic rumors that Barkley intends to enter politics.  He should.  He could shake up black politics.  But the race establishment would probably destroy him.

READY FOR THEIR CLOSE-UP – From Fox:  "The White House is pushing a multi-million-dollar program to encourage local law enforcement agencies to use body cameras, on the heels of the police shooting of 18-year-old Michael Brown in Ferguson, Mo.  At the same time, President Obama is not seeking to pull back federal programs that provide military-style equipment to local law enforcement.  The administration revealed details of a White House review after Obama met with members of his Cabinet about the situation. The president is pushing a three-year, $263 million program to expand training and resources for local police departments -- the biggest component would be a $75 million fund during that period to help purchase 50,000 body cameras. "   The cameras are a good idea, but hardly new.  We've had police dash-cams for years.  And New York has adopted a program of on-person cameras, possibly located in headgear, for officers.  Dash-cams have revealed improper behavior by police officers in dealing with the public.  They have also exonerated officers falsely accused of brutality.

December 1, 2014      Permalink

PROFOUND DISCUSSIONS, NO DOUBT – AT 10:58 A.M. :  The president considers the issues raised by Ferguson.  From CBS: 

WASHINGTON - President Barack Obama will discuss the situation in Ferguson, Missouri, Monday with his Cabinet, civil rights leaders, law enforcement officials and others.

The White House says Obama's Cabinet meeting will focus on his administration's review of federal programs that provide military-style equipment to law enforcement agencies.

The White House says the president will also meet with young civil rights leaders to discuss the challenges posed by "mistrust between law enforcement and communities of color." He'll then meet with government and law enforcement officials, as well as other community leaders, to discuss how to strengthen neighborhoods.

Protests have continued in Ferguson, but have been more muted than the violence sparked last week by a grand jury's decision not to indict a police officer in the shooting of 18-year-old Michael Brown.

COMMENT:  These problems will never be solved unless the president, and others, finally confront the cultural pathologies in some communities.

Yes, there are problems in police departments.  That's why they have internal affairs divisions.  But most cops are good cops, and many are killed or injured each year, defending us.  However, far too little attention is being paid to the cultural collapse in some communities of color.  This problem accelerated dramatically in the 1960s, in part because of the influence of extreme leftist groups that latched on to the civil rights movement and taught black Americans that they were entitled to their "culture," no matter what it was, and that those who raised questions were racists.

America has paid a price for that twisted logic, and black America has paid the greatest price of all.

December 1, 2014        Permalink

DOUBTS GROW ABOUT HILLARY – AT 9:42 A.M. ET:  If there is one thing in American politics that's been consistent in recent weeks, it's the growing doubt that Hillary Clinton is electable in 2016.  There are even doubts that she'll win her party's nomination.  And there is some doubt that she'll make the run at all.  From Newsmax: 

Doug Schoen, former pollster for Bill and Hillary Clinton, isn't certain Hillary Clinton could win the presidency in 2016.

Appearing Sunday on "The Cats Roundtable" on AM 970 in New York, Schoen told host John    Catsimatidis he doesn't think his former boss has the "new car smell" that President Barack Obama last week said was needed for a Democratic candidate.

He also said 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney would be a "formidable opponent" to Clinton.

"We’re in a real barn burner," Schoen said. "The race hasn’t even begun, and it’s tied ostensibly between Hillary and Mitt Romney."

Schoen pointed to a Nov. 26 Quinnipiac Poll showing Romney ahead of Clinton 45 percent to 44 percent in a possible 2016 race. Former GOP Florida Gov. Jeb isn't far behind Clinton in the poll, which showed support for Bush at 41 percent and Hillary at 46 percent in a head-to-head matchup.

"We’re in a statistical tie here. It’s anyone’s to be won," Schoen said.

Still, he believes Clinton, the Democratic frontrunner by double digits, will seek the office.

"The real question is how does she separate herself from Obama, yet not get so far away from him that … she doesn’t alienate his base constituents?" Schoen said.

COMMENT:  The party favorite is really Elizabeth Warren, and my hunch is that she's Obama's favorite as well.  He doesn't want to be succeeded by Hillary Clinton.  The Obamas and Clintons don't get along.

At the same time, the Clintons have built up a tremendous network of supporters and hangers-on.  Warren would be starting from scratch.  Unless her poll numbers collapse completely, Clinton could probably win the party nomination on sheer muscle alone.  The election is a different story.  No voter is obligated to Hillary Clinton.

December 1, 2014       Permalink

STILL MORE CONCERN – AT 9:16 A.M. ET:  Airliners at Christmas aren't the only thing our security people are worried about.  ISIS is believed to be targeting American military personnel within the United States.  From ABC:   

The FBI on Sunday issued the strongest warning to date about possible attacks by the ISIS terrorist group against the U.S. military inside the homeland, officials tell ABC News.

In a joint intelligence bulletin issued overnight by the FBI with the Department of Homeland Security, officials strongly urged those who serve in uniform to scrub their social media accounts of anything that might bring unwanted attention from "violent extremists" or would help the extremists learn individual service members' identities.

"The FBI and DHS recommend that current and former members of the military review their online social media accounts for any information that might serve to attract the attention of ISIL [ISIS] and its supporters," the federal bulletin sent to law enforcement agencies said, advising that troops "routinely exercise operational security in their interactions online."

Officials said they fear copycat attacks based on what happened in Canada last month, when two uniformed Canadian soldiers were killed in two separate incidents by young men who claimed they were ISIS followers.

COMMENT:  Americans must be reintroduced to the notion of the long struggle, like the Cold War.  President Kennedy used the term "twilight struggle."  Neither peace nor all-out war.  During the Obama years we've only been introduced to the notion of confusion. 

Let us not forget that this administration still lists the terror attack on American soldiers by an Islamist at Fort Hood as "workplace violence."  Do people know they're lying?

December 1, 2014       Permalink

NEW TERROR THREAT – AT 8:52 A.M. ET:  If the report is accurate, terror groups are once again attempting to use their favorite tool...airliners.  From the New York Post: 

Terrorists are plotting to blow up five passenger planes flying between European cities as part of a Christmas “spectacular,” according to a British newspaper report.

“Everyone is expecting something catastrophic very soon,” a source told the Sunday Express.

“We’ve been told that five planes are being targeted in a high-profile hit before Christmas. They’ve been waiting for the big one.”

London authorities were the first to uncover the threat, which would involve midair bombings, a source told The Post.

“There is a credible threat that they’re concerned about,’’ another source said. “They’ve known about it for a while.”

Airport-security sources told the Sunday Express that Islamic radicals plan to smuggle bombs onto the planes in carry-on luggage.

“That’s a common theme that’s out there,’’ the first Post source noted.

Due to the threat, British airport officials may require devices such as smartphones and iPads to be placed in checked luggage.

Cellphones can be used as bombs or bomb triggers, and nonmetallic devices can be hidden inside of them.

The plot, the newspaper said, is believed to involve smuggling bombs on planes bound for European cities.

“The threat is aimed at Europe,” the Sunday Express reported, adding, “The US has improved their security over the summer, but we have not.’’

COMMENT:  We cannot prove that the story is accurate, but it has the feel of reality.  It's entirely logical.  Sooner or later, a major plot is going to succeed.  And Obama will blame the Republicans.

December 1,  2014     Permalink